Aren't we running the risk that these parties will be co-opted into supporting the majority candidacies in, let's say, n
Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2025 6:55 am
Yes, that is orthogonal to the law. This should be combated in other ways.
Taking this context into account, what themes do you think will be most common during the elections? Will these parties, which will be forced to build a brand, run the risk of generating more populism, start pursuing agendas without conviction, just to guarantee votes?
Here we have a question: what is the agenda in a municipal election? Let's look at the 2016 elections, for example. PT was the big loser, going from 2nd most voted to 6th, so everyone said: "it's over". Well, it went to the 2nd round of the presidential election and had the largest bench in the chamber. So the municipal election was not a reflection of what would happen in the federal, national election in 2018.
These are parallel dynamics and trajectories. Parallel in some turkey mobile database points, but they may come together somewhere. In the current Brazilian case, we need to focus on what is happening in the country and what kind of connection is possible between the national and local situations. For me, it is somewhat obvious: Covid-19 and the assessment that mayors will receive regarding the way they dealt with this problem. This is national, this is a laboratory for 2022.
For state governments, if voters are concerned, are looking at this and are going to punish mayors for their greater or lesser effectiveness in dealing with the problem, it will be a signal for the 2022 election . This may not happen. The evaluation of mayors may not be totally impacted by Covid-19 and may be largely impacted.
Another important thing is that the issue of unemployment and informality is something that weighs heavily on the scenario of large cities, especially. This tends to make the mayor's life very difficult in terms of quality of life. This has a huge impact. On the other hand, mayors can be rewarded if they know how to show the population how they dealt with the issue of Covid-19. This will be an atypical election. There is no way of knowing how the mayors' communication spaces with the population will be used.
Do you think we could see a significant drop in attendance?
I think so. There is a chance that older people will not vote and that there is a lot of justification for this. We know that this has a bias. Those who do not tend to vote have a class bias. The lower classes tend not to vote and should vote even less now. We do not know the partisan effects, but we do know the social effects. Who tends not to vote? This is an issue that we should keep an eye on.
You raised 3 questions at the beginning: PSL, PT and Bolsonaro. What are the expectations regarding the role of the PR?
According to the polls, Bolsonaro has recovered his popularity quite well. But there is a problem here: the institutes do not have the practice of conducting surveys by telephone or email, so the methodological issue needs to be discussed. In any case, the movements that were captured by all of them were, initially, a sharp drop in popularity, up to a certain point, and, based on some facts, its very strong recovery. Political analysis is showing that this may be associated with the emergency aid. Therefore, it is a very fragile base that, just as it comes, goes.
Taking this context into account, what themes do you think will be most common during the elections? Will these parties, which will be forced to build a brand, run the risk of generating more populism, start pursuing agendas without conviction, just to guarantee votes?
Here we have a question: what is the agenda in a municipal election? Let's look at the 2016 elections, for example. PT was the big loser, going from 2nd most voted to 6th, so everyone said: "it's over". Well, it went to the 2nd round of the presidential election and had the largest bench in the chamber. So the municipal election was not a reflection of what would happen in the federal, national election in 2018.
These are parallel dynamics and trajectories. Parallel in some turkey mobile database points, but they may come together somewhere. In the current Brazilian case, we need to focus on what is happening in the country and what kind of connection is possible between the national and local situations. For me, it is somewhat obvious: Covid-19 and the assessment that mayors will receive regarding the way they dealt with this problem. This is national, this is a laboratory for 2022.
For state governments, if voters are concerned, are looking at this and are going to punish mayors for their greater or lesser effectiveness in dealing with the problem, it will be a signal for the 2022 election . This may not happen. The evaluation of mayors may not be totally impacted by Covid-19 and may be largely impacted.
Another important thing is that the issue of unemployment and informality is something that weighs heavily on the scenario of large cities, especially. This tends to make the mayor's life very difficult in terms of quality of life. This has a huge impact. On the other hand, mayors can be rewarded if they know how to show the population how they dealt with the issue of Covid-19. This will be an atypical election. There is no way of knowing how the mayors' communication spaces with the population will be used.
Do you think we could see a significant drop in attendance?
I think so. There is a chance that older people will not vote and that there is a lot of justification for this. We know that this has a bias. Those who do not tend to vote have a class bias. The lower classes tend not to vote and should vote even less now. We do not know the partisan effects, but we do know the social effects. Who tends not to vote? This is an issue that we should keep an eye on.
You raised 3 questions at the beginning: PSL, PT and Bolsonaro. What are the expectations regarding the role of the PR?
According to the polls, Bolsonaro has recovered his popularity quite well. But there is a problem here: the institutes do not have the practice of conducting surveys by telephone or email, so the methodological issue needs to be discussed. In any case, the movements that were captured by all of them were, initially, a sharp drop in popularity, up to a certain point, and, based on some facts, its very strong recovery. Political analysis is showing that this may be associated with the emergency aid. Therefore, it is a very fragile base that, just as it comes, goes.