Ten Reasons Why Our Judgments About the World Are Wrong and Why Things Are Better Than You Think
Posted: Wed Jan 29, 2025 7:11 am
Hans Rosling in his book Factfulness: Ten Reasons Why Our World Views Are Wrong and Why Things Are Better Than You Think addresses the typical Western reader who lives in an illusion, considering himself part of the "first" world, and everyone else as the "third." The inhabitants of the "third" world drag out a miserable existence, are uneducated, have children by the dozens and rather quickly depart for the next world. The illusion is supported by the media.
The reality is different. In the second decade of the 21st century, significant social and economic indicators of the "third" and "first" worlds are rapidly converging or not differing at all. The majority of girls around the world are receiving primary education, infant mortality has decreased, life expectancy has increased, and in all countries women are giving birth to fewer and fewer children...
Why should a Russian-speaking person read this book? Perhaps a Russian-usa whatsapp list speaking person is not so susceptible to the illusion described above, but some data is involuntarily perceived in this illusory paradigm. In 2011, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 23% of AppStore consumer spending (out of $3.5 billion), and in 2017 - 59% (out of $42.5 billion). Agree that 59% still sounds a little surprising. That is, we also sometimes involuntarily do not believe in the economic potential of everything that is outside the Western, "first" world.
"Factuality" will help to better understand the real development of the world, will clearly show how to apply some principles of common sense when absorbing information, and will once again shake faith in the media and some social movements that are trying to scare us with the end of the world. And last but not least: it will allow us to look at the development of Russia differently, adding optimism.
1. The instinct “We are different”
The West and the rest of the world?
This division still shapes the way of thinking – of students, journalists and decision makers.
For example, in the United States, when asked what proportion of girls complete primary school in the world's poorest countries (20%? 40%? Or 60%?), 1/10 of respondents or fewer get the answer right. The correct answer is 60%.
The wrong answers are dictated by a worldview that corresponds to the reality of the 1960s, when women in the Western world had 2-3 children and infant mortality was low, while in the rest of the world they had more than 5 children and infant mortality was high. In 2017, only 13 countries, comprising 6% of the population, belong to the latter group.
Ten Reasons Why Our Judgments About the World Are Wrong and Why Things Are Better Than You Think 1
Four groups of countries based on their level of development are needed to more accurately describe reality:
one billion people are in the first group - at the first level (less than $2 per day per person);
three billion - on the second (daily income from 2 to 8 dollars);
two billion - in third place (from 8 to 32 dollars);
and one billion in fourth place (more than $32 per day per person).
The first level is about survival (no shoes, no ability to buy anything), while the subsequent levels include household items (like a refrigerator), medical care, and the ability to pay for education.
You can see it clearly on the Dollar Street project website. For example, what children's toys look like at different levels of economic development.
How to Avoid the "We Are Different" Instinct
Don't compare average indicators, but look for and notice coincidences (in proportion, trends, general rules).
Ten Reasons Why Our Judgments About the World Are Wrong and Why Things Are Better Than You Think 2
Don't compare extreme points.
10% of the population in Brazil receives 41% of the income (graph on the left). But this is the lowest figure in recent years. It is also important to understand that most of the population lives on the third and second levels (graph on the right).
Ten Reasons Why Our Judgments About the World Are Wrong and Why Things Are Better Than You Think 3
Remember that everything looks small from above.
When you live on the fourth level, it's hard to grasp the differences in poverty levels between the other three. But they are fundamental. There's a gulf between $1 a day and $16 a day.
2. The “It’s only getting worse” instinct
Statistics as a medicine
Public opinion polls show that in developed countries, 50% to 80% of the population believes that life is getting worse (Russia, by the way, is one of the most optimistic countries in this rating).
However, in reality:
in the last 20 years, the number of people below the poverty line has almost halved (in 2017, 9% of the population had less than $2 a day; in 1966, this was 50% of the world's population);
The reality is different. In the second decade of the 21st century, significant social and economic indicators of the "third" and "first" worlds are rapidly converging or not differing at all. The majority of girls around the world are receiving primary education, infant mortality has decreased, life expectancy has increased, and in all countries women are giving birth to fewer and fewer children...
Why should a Russian-speaking person read this book? Perhaps a Russian-usa whatsapp list speaking person is not so susceptible to the illusion described above, but some data is involuntarily perceived in this illusory paradigm. In 2011, the Asia-Pacific region accounted for 23% of AppStore consumer spending (out of $3.5 billion), and in 2017 - 59% (out of $42.5 billion). Agree that 59% still sounds a little surprising. That is, we also sometimes involuntarily do not believe in the economic potential of everything that is outside the Western, "first" world.
"Factuality" will help to better understand the real development of the world, will clearly show how to apply some principles of common sense when absorbing information, and will once again shake faith in the media and some social movements that are trying to scare us with the end of the world. And last but not least: it will allow us to look at the development of Russia differently, adding optimism.
1. The instinct “We are different”
The West and the rest of the world?
This division still shapes the way of thinking – of students, journalists and decision makers.
For example, in the United States, when asked what proportion of girls complete primary school in the world's poorest countries (20%? 40%? Or 60%?), 1/10 of respondents or fewer get the answer right. The correct answer is 60%.
The wrong answers are dictated by a worldview that corresponds to the reality of the 1960s, when women in the Western world had 2-3 children and infant mortality was low, while in the rest of the world they had more than 5 children and infant mortality was high. In 2017, only 13 countries, comprising 6% of the population, belong to the latter group.
Ten Reasons Why Our Judgments About the World Are Wrong and Why Things Are Better Than You Think 1
Four groups of countries based on their level of development are needed to more accurately describe reality:
one billion people are in the first group - at the first level (less than $2 per day per person);
three billion - on the second (daily income from 2 to 8 dollars);
two billion - in third place (from 8 to 32 dollars);
and one billion in fourth place (more than $32 per day per person).
The first level is about survival (no shoes, no ability to buy anything), while the subsequent levels include household items (like a refrigerator), medical care, and the ability to pay for education.
You can see it clearly on the Dollar Street project website. For example, what children's toys look like at different levels of economic development.
How to Avoid the "We Are Different" Instinct
Don't compare average indicators, but look for and notice coincidences (in proportion, trends, general rules).
Ten Reasons Why Our Judgments About the World Are Wrong and Why Things Are Better Than You Think 2
Don't compare extreme points.
10% of the population in Brazil receives 41% of the income (graph on the left). But this is the lowest figure in recent years. It is also important to understand that most of the population lives on the third and second levels (graph on the right).
Ten Reasons Why Our Judgments About the World Are Wrong and Why Things Are Better Than You Think 3
Remember that everything looks small from above.
When you live on the fourth level, it's hard to grasp the differences in poverty levels between the other three. But they are fundamental. There's a gulf between $1 a day and $16 a day.
2. The “It’s only getting worse” instinct
Statistics as a medicine
Public opinion polls show that in developed countries, 50% to 80% of the population believes that life is getting worse (Russia, by the way, is one of the most optimistic countries in this rating).
However, in reality:
in the last 20 years, the number of people below the poverty line has almost halved (in 2017, 9% of the population had less than $2 a day; in 1966, this was 50% of the world's population);